A predict-then-optimize couriers allocation framework for emergency last-mile logistics

In recent years, emergency last-mile logistics (ELML) have played an essential role in urban emergencies. The efficient allocation of couriers in ELML is of practical significance to ensure the supply of essential materials, especially in public health emergencies (PHEs). However, couriers allocation becomes challenging due to the instability of demand, dynamic supply comprehension, and the evolutional delivery environment for ELML caused by PHEs. While existing work has delved into couriers allocation, the impact of PHEs on demand-supply-delivery has yet to be considered. In this work, we design PTOCA, a Predict-Then-Optimize Couriers Allocation framework. Specifically, in the prediction stage, we design a resource-aware prediction module that performs spatio-temporal modeling of unstable demand characteristics using a variational graph GRU encoder and builds a task-resource regressor to predict demand accurately. In the optimization stage, firstly, the priority ranking module solves the matching of delivery resources under demand-supply imbalance. Then the multi-factor task allocation module is used to model the dynamic evolutional environment and reasonably assign the delivery tasks of couriers. We evaluate PTOCA using real-world data covering 170 delivery zones, more than 10,000 couriers, and 100 million delivery tasks. The data is collected from JD Logistics, one of the largest logistics service companies. Extensive experimental results show that our method outperforms the baseline in task delivery rate and on-time delivery rate.